"Demand Forecasts: The size of demand growth in 2010 appears to be more and more uncertain: In its latest report OPEC cuts its expectation to a modest global growth of just 0.80 mb/d (January report: 0.82) whereas IEA and EIA have become more optimistic. IEA staff estimate a demand growth of 1.56 mb/d (Jan. 1.44), EIA takes a middle position (1.20 mb/d, Jan. 1.08 mb/d). Last year OPEC pundits had a better track record than their colleagues.

The differences between the three demand reports are concentrated in emerging markets (ex China). The numbers for China and OECD countries do not differ much. They expect Chinese oil demand to grow by about 0.4 mb/d. Other emerging markets´ consumption should expand by 0.5 mb/d (OPEC report) or 1.2 mb/d (IEA).
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Demand momentum focuses on non-OECD areas. The lack of current and reliable data makes it even more difficult to assess the current supply-demand situation. For example: As gasoline demand in the US appears anemic, considerable gasoline exports to Asia, West Africa and the Middle East support European gasoline prices. This is also due to the lack of storage capacitites in Asia.

Chinese final oil consumption is another area of uncertainty. Surging crude imports go along with rising product exports and, presumably, growing storage. It is quite possible that Chinese final oil consumption has been stagnating for months, but the lack of data makes it possible that Nymex oil traders continue to quote the Chinese growth story as main argument for rising crude prices."

Track Record 15.Feb.2010
Please remember: Hits are as useful as misses for your decision-making as both allow you to upgrade or downgrade arguments and models.



Trading Outlook Changed (GOB 29) 8.Feb.2010
GOB No.29 available: "Based on our current evaluation of oil price models (see table p3 right column) we would favour a neutral or slightly bullish market stance for the coming weeks even if some "laggards" still may have to reduce their long positions. We would therefore abandon our bearish price stance for the first time in 2010."

Trading Outlook (GOB 28) 1.Feb.2010
GOB No.28 available; summary of trading chapter: "In our opinion the downturn of crude prices may continue for some more days, turning into a sideways trend above the level of $70 per barrel, assuming no further dramatic downturn in equity markets. The upside potential, however, remains limited due to the overall bearish constellation in oil markets (see table on the left). The potentially bullish impact of models no.4, no.5 and no.12 is restricted by recent data. Positive surprises in model no.9, e.g. in Monday´s ISM or Friday´s payroll data are possible but not very likely in our view. A brief short-covering rally, however, in equity, FX (Euro shorts) and crude markets is possible, even likely, but would not change the overall slightly bearish trend.

Trading Outlook (GOB 27) 25.Jan.2010
GOB No.27 available, now including additional charts on global fundamental data.
Trading Outlook: "Altogether, bearish factors outweigh bullish arguments for the third week in a row."

Trading Outlook (GOB 26) 18.Jan.2010
GOB No.26 is available. Focus of this edition: Analysis of speculative positions.
Trading Outlook: "The bearish situation will continue." (15.Jan.2010)

CFTC 15.Jan.2010
CFTC legt Vorschläge zu Positionslimits für Spekulanten vor: Näheres in unserem Newsletter GOB Nr.26.

Trading Outlook 8.Jan.2010
"Outlook: It rarely happens that so many indicators suggest a bearish price development. We would favor WTI front month short positions." (Source: Global Oil Briefing No.25)

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